What the import statistics reveals about energy security, prices, and geopolitics, for Japan’s LNG gas imports:

Introduction

Japan is one of the world’s largest importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). With almost no domestic production and no pipeline #gas, #LNG is not a marginal fuel in Japan’s energy system. It is a structural necessity.

To understand how Japan’s energy position has evolved over the past decade, we must look beyond headlines and focus on the data itself. This article analyses Japan’s LNG imports under HS271111, the HS6 code that covers liquefied natural gas only, excluding LPG and other gaseous hydrocarbons.

By isolating HS271111 (below graph), the picture becomes far clearer.

Link to HS2711 Japans import of LNG (paid members only - 500 JPY for monthly membership (can be cancelled any time), 500 JPY for 1-month os HS2711 data access) https://www.japantradestatistics.com/subscribed/import/hs2711

What HS271111 covers (and why this matters)

HS271111 refers exclusively to natural gas in liquefied form (LNG). It does not include propane, butane, or other petroleum gases.

For Japan, this distinction is critical:

• LNG accounts for the overwhelming majority of gas imports

• LNG underpins electricity generation, industrial heat, and price stability

• LNG imports are tightly linked to geopolitics and shipping routes

Using HS271111 removes statistical noise and allows a direct analysis of Japan’s LNG dependency.

The past decade: #stability built on #Australia

Looking at the last ten years of HS271111 data, one pattern dominates immediately: Australia.

Australia has consistently been Japan’s largest LNG supplier, often accounting for more than one-third of total LNG imports. While monthly volumes fluctuate, the long-term trend is remarkably stable.

This reflects:

• Long-term supply contracts

• Geographic proximity

• Political reliability

• Integrated Japan - Australia energy partnerships

The data shows that Japan’s LNG security has been anchored in Australia for years, long before the #Ukraine war reshaped global gas markets.

Diversification layers: Qatar, Southeast Asia, & the US

Beyond Australia, Japan’s LNG imports reveal a layered diversification strategy.

Qatar plays a crucial role as a Middle Eastern supplier with large-scale, low-cost LNG production. Its volumes are steady and strategic, providing resilience during global supply disruptions.

Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei contribute smaller but consistent volumes. These regional suppliers reduce overdependence on any single exporter and offer logistical advantages.

The United States emerges as a flexible, increasingly important supplier, particularly after 2016. US LNG volumes fluctuate more than those from Australia or Qatar, reflecting spot-market exposure and global price dynamics rather than fixed bilateral supply.

Russia: continuity under constraint

Above a chart showing a comparison between Australia, Russia and United States, of import of 271111 to Japan, from 2016 to 2025.

#Russian LNG, largely associated with Sakhalin projects, remains visible in the data even after 2022. While volumes are volatile, they have not disappeared.

This illustrates a key reality:

• Energy infrastructure decisions are long-term

• LNG trade cannot be reshaped overnight

• Japan’s approach has been pragmatic rather than ideological

The HS271111 data makes clear that Japan has prioritized energy security and supply continuity over abrupt disengagement.

What the present data tells us

Recent years show three clear trends:

1. Australia remains dominant, but not exclusive

2. Supplier diversification has increased, not decreased

3. Price volatility does not necessarily reduce volumes, only reshuffles sources

Despite geopolitical shocks, Japan’s LNG imports remain structurally stable. What changes is who supplies marginal volumes, not whether LNG is needed.

Looking ahead: what the data suggests

Based on HS271111 trends, several expectations stand out:

• LNG will remain essential well into the 2030s, regardless of renewables growth

• Australia and Qatar will continue to anchor Japan’s LNG supply

• US LNG will act as a swing supplier during market stress

• Supply security, not decarbonization rhetoric, will dominate procurement decisions

Geopolitical risk around Ukraine, Taiwan, and Middle Eastern shipping lanes makes diversification more valuable, not less.

Why HS271111 matters for serious analysis

Using HS271111 allows analysts, journalists, and policymakers to:

• Speak precisely about LNG, not “gas” in general

• Compare suppliers without contamination from LPG data

• Track structural energy dependencies accurately

This level of clarity is essential when energy policy, prices, and national security intersect.

This analysis is based on Japan’s official trade statistics (Ministry of Finance), visualised and explored through JapanTradeStatistics.com.