The myth of Japan’s energy transition

Japan is often discussed as if it were standing at an energy crossroads. Policy papers talk about transitions. Headlines talk about disruption. Conferences talk about transformation. But when you step away from narratives and look directly at the trade data, a very different story emerges, one of continuity, structure, and deliberate restraint.

By examining Japan’s imports of HS2709 (crude petroleum oils) and HS2710 (refined petroleum products), we can see how Japan actually secures energy in the real world, not how it is described in policy debates.

This article tells that story.

Two codes, one system

At first glance, HS2709 and HS2710 look like technical classifications. In reality, they represent the two pillars of Japan’s petroleum system.

HS2709 covers crude oil, the upstream feedstock that cannot be used without processing. HS2710 covers refined fuels, the products that power cars, ships, planes, factories, and households.

Together, they show not just how much energy Japan imports, but how the system is designed to function.

A system built on predictability

Japan has virtually no domestic crude oil production. What is striking is not Japan’s dependency, it is how narrowly and consistently that dependency is managed.

Looking at HS2709 imports over more than twenty years, one pattern dominates: Japan relies overwhelmingly on a small group of Middle Eastern suppliers.

Saudi Arabia sits at the center of this structure. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar form the surrounding pillars.

These relationships are not accidental. They reflect:

• Refinery compatibility

• Long-term contractual stability

• A preference for predictability over experimentation

Even during periods of geopolitical tension, supplier hierarchies remain largely intact.

This is not inertia. It is design.

What did not change after 2022

Many observers expected Japan’s energy imports to undergo dramatic restructuring after 2022. But the data does not support that assumption.

Volumes fluctuate, as they always have. Supplier shares shift slightly at the margin.

But the core structure remains.

Japan did not scramble to reinvent its upstream energy system. It absorbed global shocks through inventory management, downstream flexibility, and existing supplier relationships.

This stands in contrast to regions that had built energy systems around fewer, more fragile dependencies.

Where flexibility actually lives

If crude oil imports show rigidity, refined product imports tell a different story.

HS2710 reveals where Japan allows adjustment.

Refined petroleum products are imported not because Japan lacks refineries, but because:

• Demand is seasonal

• Product mix requirements vary

• Logistics sometimes favor short-distance imports

This is where South Korea emerges as a key partner.

South Korea is not supplying crude oil. It is supplying refined fuel, efficiently, predictably, and close to market.

This explains why South Korea appears so prominently in HS2710 data while remaining absent from HS2709 dominance.

It is a downstream relationship, not an upstream dependency.

Feedstock, refining, and control

A recurring misunderstanding is the idea that crude oil imports somehow “turn into” refined imports. They do not, at least not in trade statistics.

But economically, the relationship is clear.

Crude oil imported under HS2709 becomes feedstock for Japanese refineries. Refined imports under HS2710 act as balancing tools, filling gaps when domestic output and consumption do not align perfectly.

This structure gives Japan something extremely valuable: control. Control over processing, control over product mix, control over timing.

Energy security versus energy narratives

Japan has introduced solar, wind, and experimental energy technologies. These are visible in policy documents and public discourse.

Yet the trade data shows that:

• Crude oil imports remain structurally stable

• Refined fuel usage does not decline meaningfully

• The petroleum backbone remains intact

  
  

Note 2025 shows only data to October

This does not imply resistance to change. It implies prioritization. For Japan, energy security comes first. New technologies are layered onto the system, not substituted for it.

The numbers reflect this quietly, without argument.

Japan and Europe: a quiet contrast

One reason Japan’s adjustment appears calmer than Europe’s is structural.

Japan never relied heavily on pipeline gas. Its crude oil sourcing was never Russia-centric. Its LNG strategy was diversified long before crises emerged.

As a result, Japan faced fewer forced trade-offs when global conditions changed.

This difference is visible in trade flows, not inferred from politics.

What HS2709 and HS2710 ultimately teach us

Seen together, these two HS codes tell a disciplined story:

• Japan’s upstream energy system is conservative by design

• Refining remains a strategic domestic capability

• Flexibility is concentrated downstream

• Stability is valued over speed of change

This is not stagnation. It is structural realism.

Key takeaways

1. Japan’s energy dependency is stable, not fragile

2. Concentration reflects strategy, not vulnerability

3. Upstream rigidity is intentional

4. Refinery compatibility and supply reliability dominate sourcing decisions.

5. Downstream imports provide flexibility without surrendering control

6. HS2710 complements domestic refining rather than replacing it

7. Post-2022 adjustments were marginal, not transformational

8. Energy security outweighs energy narratives

9. The trade data shows continuity where rhetoric often suggests rupture.

About the data

This analysis is based on official Japan Ministry of Finance trade statistics, visualized and explored through JapanTradeStatistics.com.

Figures for November 2025 will be available shortly.

Final thought

Japan’s energy system is not driven by ideology or headlines.

It is driven by engineering, contracts, and long memory.

The trade data tells that story clearly.

Go deeper than headlines. Work with the data itself

All observations in this article are based on Japan’s official trade statistics (Ministry of Finance), explored and visualised through JapanTradeStatistics.com.

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