Fresh fish, weak yen, stagnant and hard limits:

The end of "Japan loves premium imported seafood" era

Introduction

Japan is still widely perceived as the world’s premium seafood paradise. In reality, at the everyday level, it is one of the most price-sensitive fresh fish markets in the world.

HS0302 (fresh or chilled fish, no frozen products, no processing) makes this very clear. When trade data is read together with currency movements, wage trends, seasonality, and retail economics, a hard conclusion emerges:

Japan does not reward high quality - High quality is expected

What determines success is not excellence alone, but price realism within Japan’s current economic constraints.

This reality is uncomfortable for many exporters, especially those operating in high-cost, high-quality production systems. But it is the most important lesson for anyone serious about entering the Japanese seafood market.

Why HS0302 is the most honest indicator

HS0302 covers fresh or chilled fish only.

That means:

• no long storage,

• no processing buffer,

• no frozen fallback.

Every shipment reflects real-time consumer decisions, cold-chain urgency, and actual willingness to pay. HS0302 therefore provides one of the clearest windows into what the Japanese market can truly absorb, not what it aspires to consume.

Japan imports a lot, but only on strict terms

Despite being surrounded by ocean, Japan remains structurally dependent on fresh fish imports. The reasons are well known:

• declining domestic catches,

• an aging fishing workforce,

• sustainability constraints,

• and steady demand from supermarkets, sushi chains, and food service

Norway and Chile dominate salmon flows, while regional Asian suppliers fill other gaps.

However, import dependency does not mean an open market. Imports are accepted only under very specific economic and quality conditions.

For HS0303 it is easy to see Chiles dominating position for export of salmon.

The weak yen turns pricing into a feasibility issue

Japan’s prolonged yen depreciation has fundamentally changed the economics of food imports. At the same time, Japan has experienced nearly 30 years of stagnant real wages and limited growth in household purchasing power. Consumers have become extremely price-conscious, not less. For fresh fish, the implication is unforgiving:

If you aim for volume, price must come first.

No quality story, no origin narrative, no sustainability (!) certification can overcome a structurally uncompetitive landed cost. By definition, Japanese don't buy into the climate change narrative as do Westerners. There are increasing confusions in the West, since Bill Gates also admitted, there are no serious implication to humans the next 50 or more years due to human made CO2 emissions. Japanese has thought so always, so "good for the climate" meas absolutely nothing in Japan or rather, "unnecessarily expensive". If export to Japan is your goal, climate actions of any kind don't make the product a premium and will be avoided rather than chosen. You should rather avoid marketing your product using climate measures taken, as it makes the product sound more expensive than products which has not fallen into that category. The sooner you realize this, the sooner your pricing can adjust to a realistic level for the Japanese market.

Norwegian cod: a textbook case of “quality is not enough”

At one point, tried to establish exports of Norwegian farmed cods to Japan.

Product wise, the fish was more than excellent and offered some very interesting features which fit perfectly into the Japanese market. It also offered stable and very high quality but was very expensive too. Especially if it was to be flown to Japan.

At Japanese retail level, Norwegian cod ended up roughly three times more expensive than what consumers were willing to pay for cods in general.

The problem was never quality. The problem was market perception and above all, the price, and the lack of willingness to spend money on market the product.

In Japan, cod is widely perceived as a low-priced fish, used in everyday cooking. Once that perception is fixed, it defines the price ceiling, regardless of product excellence. To change this, a serious effort must be made marketing wise. If not, the market is closed for the product anyway.

The real competition is farmed fish

Many exporters mistakenly believe they are competing against other wild-caught imports. In reality, the price benchmark in Japan is more and more set by farmed species such as salmon, hamachi, seabass, and red seabream. For Salmon farming, foreign players are already present on the Japanese market as farmers, which makes the imported salmon market even more tight than it already is. The biggest players on the market do already farm to some extent, and this tendency will probably increase in near future, as the workd becomes more and more unstable due to geopolitical uncertainties. The market is already saturated making it difficult to make a decent margin for a new player already.

Farmed fish dominate because they offer:

• stable supply,

• predictable sizing,

• lower price volatility,

• consistent quality.

Wild-caught import must, to a greater extent, compete against optimized aquaculture economics, not against other wild caught products.

Sushi-chain economics leave little room for error

Large conveyor-belt sushi chains such as Sushiro and Kura Sushi operate under razor-thin margins.

Their priorities are absolute:

• price stability,

• supply reliability,

• predictable costs.

As a result, they strongly prefer:

• frozen products,

• domestic fish,

• or nearby farmed species.

Fresh imported fish under HS0302 rarely fits their model unless pricing is exceptionally aggressive. The largest sushi chains dont even necessarily have distribution system fitting fresh fish.

What HS0302 really teaches exporters

Taken together, HS0302 import and export data reveals a disciplined, not closed, market.

Key lessons are clear:

• Import dependency exists, but only under strict price realism.

• High quality is not rewarded; high quality is expected.

• Quality without market-fit fails quickly.

• Farmed species set the real price benchmark.

The Japanese market will not adapt to your cost structure. Your product must adapt to Japan’s economic reality.

Why HS4-level data is indispensable

Aggregated “seafood” statistics hide more than they reveal.

HS0302 allows us to separate:

• fresh versus frozen dynamics,

• perception versus reality,

• genuine demand versus aspirational demand.

Without this precision, exporters risk confusing interest with opportunity.

This analysis is based on Japan’s official Ministry of Finance trade statistics, explored and visualized through JapanTradeStatistics.com.

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